IMF Reduces its Global Growth Forecast in Latest Estimates

May 10, 2013
A monthly brief on the global economic situation
 

US:

IMF cut the global growth forecast for this year to 3.3% from 3.5% predicted in January. The growth forecast for 2014 was slashed to 4% from 4.1% expansion seen earlier. It forecast the US economy to grow 1.9% this year, which is smaller than the 2% expansion forecast in January. Meanwhile, the US GDP expanded at a 2.5% annual rate in the first quarter, up from 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2012. Also, the Federal Reserve maintained its $85 bn per month asset purchase program

Europe:

ECB reduced its main refinancing rate by 25 bps to a record low of 0.50% and the marginal lending facility rate to 1% from 1.50%. The previous change in euro area interest rates was a quarter-point reduction in July 2012. The UK economy expanded 0.3% in the first quarter from a quarter ago, when it was down 0.3%. The Bank of England and the HM Treasury announced an extension of the Funding for Lending Scheme for 1 year with an aim to boost credit supply to small businesses. In a negative, Fitch cut the UK's long-term foreign and local currency issuer default ratings to 'AA+' from 'AAA'. The outlook is 'stable.'

Asia:

Bank of Japan announced decisive stimulus measures aimed at ending 15 years of deflation in the country. Under the new plan, the central bank purchases of the Japanese Government Bonds (JGB) will amount to around 7 trillion yen per month. China’s GDP expanded 7.7% on-year in the first quarter, slower than the 7.9% growth recorded in the fourth quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, the World Bank cut its 2013 growth outlook for the Chinese economy to 8.3% from its previous forecast of 8.4%. Fitch downgraded China's long-term local currency rating to 'A+' from 'AA-' with a 'stable' outlook, saying that risks to China's financial stability have grown.

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