I thought of the U.S. dollar as the mighty greenback rocked this year. We entered a period of divergent central bank policies. Abe’s Japan unleashed a liquidity bazooka and ECB is concocting a QE arsenal while U.S. Federal Reserve is on a path of policy normalisation. It’s early days yet. My fear is that central banks have become slaves to the diktats of financial markets while real economies are not responding in the desired manner. No wonder, the debate on inequality is gaining lot of "capital in the 21st century".
The mantle for reviving growth and creating jobs has to be taken over by the fiscal policies as central banks can’t be “the only game in town”. Take my word, there is no other way out. We will all be Keynesians again.
I admire “Bond king” Bill Gross for starting afresh at Janus fund at the age of 70. Those passionate about managing money can be cut off from oxygen but not from the adrenaline that markets provide.
The fall in inflation in India was matched only by the downslide in Congress party’s fortune this year. Indeed, calls for rate cuts are always inflated in India. Everyone proposed but Rajan disposed. He knows the importance of anchoring inflationary expectations, positive real rates and fire-proofing our house to deal with a world that has potential "Fault lines". We can't afford going through another "taper tantrum" like 2013. He has to ensure India’s banking system doesn't become the Achilles heel in an economy ready for the recovery. He is steering us at a time when powerful forces of digitization and disintermediation are likely to change the landscape of banking and finance globally. Foreigners maintained the faith while domestic investors are returning to our financial markets. Governor Rajan was one of the strongest contenders.
We love our "Anand" but in the world of chess, Magnus Carlsen is the new Vishwa Nath (lord of the world). Home turf couldn’t save Brazilian team from a terrible defeat while the Germans played flawlessly to lift the FIFA cup. If Neymar's injury fractured the pleasure of football aficionados, a bouncer claiming Cricketer Philip Hughes’s life crossed the boundaries of shock.
People behind the “Intersteller” deserve kudos. They liberate our minds and push us towards unknown frontiers. I salute Indian scientists for the ‘Mangalyaan’ (Mars mission) that cost lesser than a Hollywood movie. I hope they can also find a cheaper cure for Ebola that claimed thousands of lives. While we are proud of Mars missions and ‘Rosetta space probe’, humanity should also live sustainably to keep ‘mother earth’ the most beautiful place in the universe.
What is missed in the unprecedented verdict in 2014 general election is the hunger for change in “young India”. The old scions overlooking this transformation are scratching their heads. Look deeper, the youth is changing the narrative across politics, business and society at large. Venture capital investment in startups tripled this year with investors betting on young Indian talent. One may abhor the addiction to whatsapp or candy-crush, the fact is that rising internet penetration is throwing exciting opportunities. It’s not about the soaring valuations of FlipKart, Zomato, InMobi or Zoho but a pervasive revolution underway. This generation has a different DNA with a favorable eco-system to boot. Day is not far to have our own Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos and Larry Page pushing the horizons of innovation. Look at the renaissance in literature with the arrival of many young authors.
Generations that never looked beyond cricket are surprised at shooting popularity of several other sports. There are outstanding examples of young social entrepreneurs whose “spirit of doing good” is making visible impact. Stories abound. This is just the beginning. The “awakened young Indian” is my person of the year. I salute you. Standing ovation.
Navneet Munot
Chief Investment Officer – SBI Funds Management Pvt Ltd
