Elon Musk is living up to his reputation for disruption, this time with the outlook for Twitter's stock.
Twitter shares rocketed on the news that the Tesla founder and chief executive took a stake in the social media platform. As of Tuesday morning, Twitter shares had risen roughly 35% to $53.25 per share from Friday's close of $39.31. Monday's increase of 27% was the biggest one-day move in the company since it went public in 2013.
The stock’s Fair Value Estimate, or FVE, is at $58 assigned by Morningstar senior equity analyst Ali Mogharabi.
Stake
Musk bought a 9.2% stake on March 14 for an estimated $2.4 billion, making him the company’s largest outside shareholder
His stake dwarfs that of founder and former chief executive Jack Dorsey who owns 2.25%. Vanguard Group has a 8.39% stake, and Morgan Stanley Investment Management, at 8%, are the next biggest holders after Musk.
Unlike other major media companies, Twitter has no controlling shareholder, giving rise to takeover speculation.
Involvement
Musk’s stake was considered passive – one who does not seek to influence or change control of a company.
Musk announced his 9.2% stake by filing the 13G with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. This is a simple disclosure for investors who intend to remain “passive” in the company’s affairs.
Those angling for board seats or shakeups typically file a longer and more in-depth form, 13D. Twitter confirmed that Musk would be joining the company's board. It is now reported that the filing has been updated to 13D.
Our View
Mogharabi sees his stake as impacting Twitter’s long-term strategy.
Musk could seek to influence the openness of the platform and how it controls content or push to invest in the subscription model more aggressively as it has with Twitter Blue.
Mogharabi notes that Musk's stake and his addition to the board comes after the Tesla founder has publicly expressed--via Twitter--negative views of the company's chief executive Parag Agrawal.
Musk has already indicated that he did not agree with the appointment of Agrawal and that he desires some changes.
In different tweets (mainly one in December 2021 after the announcement of Parag Agrawal replacing Jack Dorsey as the CEO, and a few last week) Musk has implied that he thinks the platform limits free speech and that a new one must be created (with agreement from more than 70% of over 2 million Twitter users that responded to a poll he posted).
Some background
Dorsey resigned as chief executive in November 2021, nearly two years after activist investor Elliott Management began agitating for his ouster. Prior to Dorsey’s departure, Twitter agreed to give Elliott a board seat. The company also accepted a $1 billion investment from Silver Lake Partners, whose co-chief executive and managing partner, Egon Durban, also joined the company’s board.
Durban advised Musk when he explored the idea of taking Tesla private. It was Musk’s August 7, 2018 tweet that he was considering taking Tesla private at $420 a share, and had funding secured, that got him into hot water with the SEC.
